As the second and final phase of the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election concludes today, all eyes are on the exit-poll projections that will be released later this evening. While the official counting of votes is scheduled for November 14, these early surveys provide a first look at how voters may have turned out in India’s politically pivotal state.
Exit-Poll Timing & Guidelines
According to rules laid down by the Election Commission of India (ECI), exit poll results cannot be published or broadcast until voting in all constituencies has been completed. For Bihar 2025:
- The second polling phase ends on Tuesday, 11 November 2025. exit-poll projections are expected to be released after 6:30 pm IST on the same day.
- These surveys capture the voter’s response immediately after casting their ballot, but must be treated as indicators, not definitive results.
Why They Matter
- Political stakes are high – The contest pits the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led in Bihar by Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), against the opposition Mahagathbandhan/INDIA bloc led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Indian National Congress.
- Voter turnout is rising – Phase 1 of the polls saw a turnout of about 64.66 % in 121 seats, a notable increase from previous elections. Higher turnout often signals changing voter sentimen
- Predictive challenges remain – Past exit polls in Bihar have sometimes diverged significantly from final results. Media outlets caution that the 2025 projections should be interpreted with care.
Key Factors Influencing 2025 Polls
- Electoral roll revisions: A special intensive revision of voters’ lists in Bihar has drawn criticism from opposition parties for potentially disenfranchising marginalised groups.
- Youth, women & caste dynamics: Analysts identify three dominant variables shaping the outcome — participation by women and youth voters, and evolving caste equations across constituencies.
- Local issues vs national leadership: While local governance, jobs and development remain front-line issues, the election is also viewed as a larger test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political standing in the Hindi heartland.
What Exit-Polls Could Indicate
While exit-polls must be treated cautiously, they may offer insights into:
- Which alliance appears to have gained the momentum after Phase 2 of voting.
- Whether the increased turnout has favoured the incumbent government (NDA) or the opposition.
- Possible trends in vote swings across regions like Seemanchal, Mithilanchal and the Bhojpur-Saran belt.
- Early cues on leadership choices and post-poll coalition dynamics.
Important Caveats
- Exit-poll figures are not final: They do not replace the official count of votes, which begins on 14 November.
- Sample-based nature: They reflect selected polling booths and may not fully capture all demographics or regional nuances.
- Voter behaviour can shift: Late swings, undecided voters, and turnout in Phase 2 may change the ultimate outcome.
- Margin of error: Especially in a densely contested Assembly election with 243 seats, even small estimation errors can lead to significant differences.
What to Watch for Next
- Results day (14 November 2025): Counting for all 243 Bihar Legislative Assembly seats starts early and final verdict will shape the next government.
- Post-poll commentary: Parties will interpret the exit-polls and official results to evaluate strengths and recalibrate for future elections.
- National implications: Outcome in Bihar could influence alliances and strategies ahead of other key states and the next general election.
The exit-poll projections for the 2025 Bihar Assembly election arrive at a time of heightened anticipation. For voters, analysts and policymakers alike, these numbers offer a first glimpse of the shifting mood in one of India’s most politically significant states. However, as experts repeatedly underscore, the real story will emerge on November 14 when ballots are counted and the final verdict delivered. Until then, the projections should be viewed as one piece of the larger electoral puzzle.
Last Updated on: Tuesday, November 11, 2025 6:40 pm by Republic Business Team | Published by: Republic Business Team on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 6:40 pm | News Categories: Latest
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